Climatic Variability, Ecosystem Dynamics, and Disturbance in Mountain Protected Areas: Assessing the Vulnerability of Natural Resources

Duration:  October 1998 - September 2003

Mountains cover 20% of the Earth's surface, are home to 10% of the world's human population, and provide 50% of the freshwater consumed by humans.  Because of their varied topography, steep environmental gradients and ecological isolation, mountains support a higher diversity of ecosystems and a larger percentage of endemic (narrowly distributed) species than most lowlands.  They are important sources of  timber, minerals, and genetic materials for agriculture, and are favored destinations for recreation and tourism.  Mountains and downstream areas in the northwestern U.S. have the highest human population growth rates in the Nation. 

How will mountain ecosystems in the northwestern United States be affected by climatic variability in the 21st century?  This is the fundamental question guiding our project.  Our research will determine how mountain protected areas along a transect from western Washington to western Montana are affected by climate variability.  This information will help us predict the effects of global climatic change on natural resources and human activities in this region.  Our work will continue, and expand upon, global change research we initiated in 1991.

We will examine ecological responses to climate variability within and between three mountain-dominated bioregions: 

• Olympic Mountains
• North Cascade Range
• Northern Rocky Mountains

These bioregions span a gradient from marine to continental climates and provide an ideal natural laboratory for addressing scientific questions regarding the effects of climatic change on natural resources.  

Core research areas will be located in Olympic, North Cascades and Glacier National Parks.

Olympic N. P.	North Cascades N. P.		Glacier  N. P.

Approach:

Our research program is guided by a multi-scale modeling framework (the Regional
Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys)) and associated models.  This modeling system was developed and validated by our research team to enable us to integrate large amounts of field data and examine ecosystem properties at large spatial scales.  Our work will address the following key questions:

Research Question 1:

What are the impacts of spatial and temporal climatic variability (including extreme events) on critical plant resources and species distributions?

During summer 1999, scientific teams will collect field data on climate, hydrology, and vegetation.  These data will be used as inputs to fine-scale (30-m grid) RHESSys model simulations.  Data collection and subsequent model runs will continue through the year 2003.

We will use RHESSys in a two-stage analysis of climatic effects on vegetation composition.  Terrain-based modeling will be used to convert climatic and topographic site descriptors into biophysical variables (radiation, temperature, soil moisture) that are important for plant growth and survival.  Species distributions will then be modeled with respect to the biophysical environment.

Research Question 2:

What are the impacts of climate variability on ecosystem processes, such as carbon cycling, and natural resources, such as water supply?

Hydrologic output from an ecosystem provides an integrated response to climatic inputs (precipitation, relative humidity), topography (slope), soils (water-holding capacity), and biotic responses (evapotranspiration, growth).  

We will measure stream discharge and other hydrologic parameters sensitive to climatic variability at various spatial and temporal scales.  We will determine the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to climate by measuring plant productivity and carbon storage along water- and energy-supply gradients from the forest stand to the bioregional scale.

Research Question 3:

How do different levels and types of disturbance influence landscape patterns and the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability?

We will evaluate changes in landscape cover and ecosystem structure inside and outside Olympic NP, North Cascades NP, and Glacier NP.  We will combine modeling of landscape fragmentation with field data reflecting existing conditions at each of the three parks.  A primary objective is to produce simulations of long-term changes in vegetation composition and structure under different climatic scenarios.

Application of Results:

Modeling capabilities developed through this project will provide land managers with new tools and information for resource management, for example:

• We will use the geographic information system (GIS) databases we develop to identify "vulnerable landscapes" with respect to climatic variability and other environmental factors. 
• Improved forecasts of ecological conditions will provide new capabilities for managing natural resources at large spatial and temporal scales.  Potential management responses can be evaluated through model simulations. 
• Maps of forest fire potential under different climatic scenarios and fire management policies can be used to avoid locating buildings and other infrastructures in high-risk areas.
• Simulations of watershed discharge under more frequent and intense climate extremes can be used to help make decisions regarding road engineering, emergency services, irrigation allotments, and other human activities.

Products:

The field studies, data syntheses, and modeling activities that comprise our research program will produce an expanded understanding of mountain ecosystems and new capabilities for analysis and informed decision-making.  Specific products will include:

• Peer-reviewed publications.
• Baseline data summaries on CD-ROM, provided to land management agencies.
• Monitoring programs and protocols to serve as templates for other long-term monitoring programs within the bioregions studied.
• Model simulations and results.
• Maps depicting land-use and land-cover change, environmental gradients, and results of simulations.  Maps will be in digital form and GIS formats.
• Training workshops.  These will provide specialists in DOI agencies with the capability to run simulations with the model versions which prove to work best.

Co-Investigators:
Dr. David Peterson , U.S. Forest Service
Dr. Robert E. Keane, U.S. Forest Service
Dr. Steven W. Running, University of Montana
Dr. Ed Schreiner, USGS, Cascadia Field Station

	Primary Contact: Dan Fagre, USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Glacier Field Station E-mail  Dr. Fagre