Global Change Impacts in the Colorado Rockies Biogeographical Area:Phase II

Duration: May 1999 - September 2003
Primary Contact: Dr. Tom Stohlgren, USGS, Fort Collins Science Center (FORT)

Large natural areas such as National Parks provide the U.S. Global Change Research Program with an important outdoor laboratory and an index of change in our most treasured ecosystems. Our global change/ecosystem research program focuses on multiple stresses to U.S. Department of Interior (USDI) lands including climate change, human population growth and land use change, air and water pollution, habitat fragmentation, and invasive species.

Phase I of this project (1992-1998) consisted of three integrated studies designed to develop an understanding of basic hydrology, vegetation, and climate in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. The initial research emphasized gathering data sets from field campaigns and other sources and establishing long-term plots for continued observance to develop an initial understanding of how climatic, terrestrial, and aquatic systems respond to different types of change and disturbances.

Phase II (1999-2003) focuses on understanding how multiple environmental stresses interact to influence the integrity of key natural resources and processes in Rocky Mountain National Park and in the region.This phase also emphasizes transfer of new knowledge to managers.

The science goal of Phase II is to develop a better understanding of regional climate and hydrologic patterns and of species-environment relationships to determine which species, habitats, and ecosystem processes are most sensitive to rapid environmental change and multiple stresses. The objectives below directly relate to the highest priority resource management issues at Park, region, and national levels.

Vegetation Change

• Develop a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based disturbance history map of fire and insect outbreaks to aid the Park’s Fire Management Program.
  
  
• With partners, and using field data and predictive models, develop a synthesis of potential vegetation change based on disturbance history and current resource management practices.

Mesoscale Climate Modeling

• Provide better climate change scenarios to land managers to assess the "vulnerabilities" of ecosystems to rapid environmental change.
  
  
• Assess how climate influences air quality values (visibility and pollution) in Class I airsheds (e.g., Rocky Mountain National Park).

Hydrologic Change

• Quantify climate change and air pollution effects on water quantity, delivery, and quality.
  
  
• Quantify human impacts on high elevation aquatic diversity.
  
  
• Using field data and predictive models, develop a synthesis of potential global change impacts to local and regional water supplies, water quality, and aquatic diversity.
  

This interdisciplinary approach to ecosystem science will address high priority information needs specifically identified by land managers, including:

• Providing better climate change scenarios to land managers to assess the "vulnerabilities" of ecosystems to rapid environmental change.
  
  
• Assessing how climate change influences air quality values (visibility and pollution) in Class I airsheds (e.g., Rocky Mountain National Park).
  
  
• Quantifying climate change and nitrogen deposition effects on water quantity and delivery, water quality, and aquatic diversity.
  
  
• Determining how climate change, vegetation management practices, and disturbance affect key wildlife habitat (e.g., aspen) and the spread of exotic plant species.
  

Synthesis of this information involves partnerships with several USGS Global Change Research Projects, Long-Term Ecological Research Sites, and many Bureau of Land Management (BLM), National Park Service (NPS), and US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) management units.

Collaborators:

Jill Baron, MESC; William L. Baker, University of Wyoming; Lawrence E. Band, University of North Carolina; Dan Binkley, Colorado State University (CSU); Timothy G.F. Kittel, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Colorado State University; Steven W. Running, University of Montana; David S. Schimel; Colorado State University; Thomas T. Veblen, University of Colorado

	Primary Contact: Dr. Tom Stohlgren, USGS Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) [formerly Midcontinent Ecological Science Center (MESC)]